Foreign Affairs - July/August 2005

• Special section
• The next pandemic? Laurie Garrett
• Since it first emerged in 1997, avian influenza has become deadlier and more resilient. It has infected 109 people and killed 59 of them. If the virus becomes capable of human-to-human transmission and retains its extraordinary potency, humanity could face a pandemic unlike any witnessed.
• Preparing for the next pandemic - Michael T. Osterholm
• If an influenza pandemic struck today, borders would close, the global economy would shut down, international vaccine supplies and health-care systems would be overwhelmed, and panic would reign. To limit the fallout, the industrialized world must create a detailed response strategy involving the public and private sectors.
• The human-animal link - William B. Karesh and Robert A. Cook
• Recent outbreaks of avian flu, SARS, the Ebola virus, and mad cow disease wreaked havoc on global trade and transport. They also all originated in animals. Humanity today is acutely vulnerable to diseases that start off in other species, yet our health care remains dangerously blinkered. It is time for a new, global approach.
• The lesson of HIV/AIDS - Laurie Garrett
• To get a sense of the broader damage a new pandemic might do, it helps to consider the one the world is currently enduring: HIV/AIDS. Because this deadly scourge moves slowly, many of its social, political and economic effects have yet to be understood. But the impact is hard to overstate. And it is growing.
• Essays
• Regime change and its limits - Richard N. Haass
• So far, the Bush administration has shown it would like to resolve its problems with North Korea and Iran the same way it did with Iraq: through regime change. It is easy to see why. But the strategy is unlikely to work, at least not quickly enough. A much broader approach - involving talks, sanctions, and the threat of force - is needed.
• Giving justice its due - George Perkovich
• President Bush is only half right to trumpet the spread of freedom as the main objective of US foreign policy; the pursuit of justice is just as important. Broadening the focus would not only befit the United States' political tradition, but also help neutralize opposition from radical Islamists and critics of globalization.
• A trade war with China? - Neil C. Hughes
• With China's economic clout growing rapidly, Americans are accusing Beijing of every offense from currency manipulation to crooked trade policies. None of these charges has much merit, but they have increased the probability of a US-Chinese trade war that would do considerable damange to both sides.
• Antidumping: the third rail of trade policy - N. Gregory Mankiw and Philliw L. Swagel
• Although few US politicians will admit it, antidumping policy has strayed far from its original purpose of guarding against predatory foreign firms. It is now little more than an excuse for a few powerful industries to shield themselves from competition - at great cost to both American consumers and American business.
• Europe's angry Muslims - Robert S. Leiken
• Radical Islam is spreading across Europe among descendants of Muslim immigrants. Disengranchised and disillusioned by the failure of integration, some European Muslims have taken up jihad against the West. They are dangerous and committed - and can enter the United States without a visa.
• How to help poor countries - Nancy Birdsall, Dani Rodrik, and Arvind Subramanian
• Increasing aid and market access for poor countries makes sense but will not do that much good. Wealthy nations should also push other measures that could be far more rewarding, such as giving the poor more control over economic policy, financing new development-friendly technologies, and opening labor markets.
• Addressing state failure - Stephen D. Krasner and Carlos Pascual
• In today's interconnected world, weak and failed states pose an acute risk to US and global security. Anticipating, averting and responding to conflict requires more planning and better organization - precisely the missions of the State Department's new Office of the Coordinator for Reconstruction and Stabilization.
• A partnership for Central Asia - S. Frederick Starr
• US engagement with Afghanistan has brought all of Central Asia to a turning point, but flagging interest and uncoordinated policies risk undermining recent gains. To seize the opportunity for progress in a vital region, Washington should form a Greater Central Asia Partnership for Cooperation and Development
• Reviews and responses
• Occupational Hazards - Phebe Marr
• Two postmortems on the Iraq lambaste Washington for handling the job poorly. But doing much better would be so difficult that perhaps the bar should be raised for going to war in the first place.
• Counterterrorism in retrospect - Martha Crenshaw
• A new history of the United States' pre-September 11 efforts to combat terrorism portrays them as marked by myopia, indecision and diffidence.
• How scary is the deficit? Brad Setser et al.
• The trade deficit poses a major threat to US economic stability, argue Setser and Roubini; Levey and Brown demur.
• His master's voice? David S Jackson et al
• The head of the Voice of America rebuts Sanford Ungar's charges of politicization; Ungar responds.
• Letters to the editor
• Pollack, Takeyh, and critics debate the value of economic carrots for Iran; Posen weighs in on the EU's economic competitiveness; and more